The one thing we know for certain is nothing is certain.
That’s reality for anyone trying to predict anything beyond the top two selections in the 2012 NFL Draft. Making it doubly tough putting together v 2.0 of my 2012 mock draft was that the focus of this site’s readers understandably is on the Jaguars, who sit in a particularly uncertain position.
Their scenarios vary depending on how the selections in front of them play out.
That’s a truth for most teams in most drafts, but it’s definitely true of the Jaguars this season – enough so that there’s likely to be very little certainty until the Jaguars are on the clock at No. 7 sometime after 9 p.m. on April 26.
For the purposes of v 2.0 of the mock, we’re assuming no trades in the first round except for the one involving the Rams and the Redskins and the Nos. 2 and 6 overall selections. That’s already taken place, and it means Robert Griffin III almost certainly is going to Washington.
With Andrew Luck almost certainly going to the Colts at No. 1, that gives us the Top 2 selections, but anything after that is anyone’s guess.
That starts at No. 3, where the Vikings have indicated a desire to trade down, and it gets really uncertain at No. 4, where the Browns could trade down, too.
The best-case scenario for the Jaguars?
Well, that’s easy. Ideally, some team in the mid-teens would so covet Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill – and be so worried about the Dolphins coveting him at No. 8 – that the team would trade their mid-teen selection and a second-round selection for the Jaguars’ No. 7 selection.
The second-best scenario: a team wanting Tannehill would trade with a team selecting before the Jaguars, an occurrence that likely would make either wide receiver Justin Blackmon, cornerback Morris Claiborne, offensive tackle Matt Kalil or running back Trent Richardson available.
The Jaguars could then take any of those players, or trade the selection for a team coveting one of those players.
What if the Jaguars are “stuck at No. 7?”
While that’s the scenario many don’t want, if it does occur, the Jaguars will have a chance to get a very good player there. What isn’t certain is who that player will be, and we’ll spend the next two weeks on jaguars.com going over a lot of those scenarios.
For now, here’s who we’ll mock to the Jaguars:
Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State.
We’re mocking him there for many reasons, and the injury this week to defensive tackle
A word of caution:
Don’t lose your mind over the pick. We’re 16 days out, and in draft analysis, 16 days is an eternity. Debate it, discuss it and rip it apart, and do it all while taking a look at v 2.0:
1.Colts | Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Comment: Forget reports about the Colts being unsure. Jim Irsay wants Andrew Luck. Has for a while.
2.Redskins | Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Comment: We predicted the trade in v 1.0. Sometimes we’re right. This is as certain as Luck to Colts.
3.Vikings | Matt Kalil, OT, Southern California
Comment: Vikes open to trading down. If it’s not Kalil, Morris Claiborne could go here, but Kalil likely.
4.Browns | Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
Comment: Key selection of Top 10. Alabama RB Trent Richardson could go here. Then Top 10 is different.
5.Buccaneers | Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Comment: Don’t see the Bucs passing on Richardson here if he’s still on the board.
6.Rams | Morris Claiborne, CB, Louisiana State
Comment: Even with Cortland Finnegan, Rams could use a player who may be one of draft’s best three players.
7.Jaguars | Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
Comment: Another key point of the Top 10. Cox makes sense here, but plenty of others do, too.
8.Dolphins | Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Comment: He may go earlier, but could the Dolphins really pass if he’s here?
9.Panthers |Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
Comment: Unreal potential could trump lack of consistent production for Panthers here.
10.Bills | Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Comment: Like many teams, Bills could try to trade out. Like many teams, they may find that hard to do.
11.Chiefs |Michael Brockers, DT, Louisiana State
Comment: If Tannehill isn’t gone by No. 11, he could go here. Chiefs also could be trade into Top 10.
12.Seahawks | Luke Kuechly, MLB, Boston College
Comment: If he falls past here, could fall a long way. Although he’s safe, MLB an uncertain draft position.
13.Cardinals | Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina
Comment: Cardinals are candidate to go offensive line, but Ingram may be too high a value to pass here.
14.Cowboys | Mark Barron, S Alabama
Comment: Originally thought Janoris Jenkins was possible here, but he may be too risky for first round.
15.Eagles | Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Comment: Coples almost certainly will slide from Top 10, but how far?
16.Jets | Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Comment: May not be here, but if he is Jets likely wouldn’t pass
17.Bengals | David DeCastro, G, Stanford
Comment: if he were at a premium position, he likely would be a Top 10 selection.
18.Chargers | Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
Comment: If the Jaguars can trade back to the middle of the first round, Mercilus may not make it to 18.
19.Bears | Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Comment: Once a projected Top 10 selection, his fall should stop here. Bears need to protect Cutler.
20.Titans |Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Comment: It’s a tossup about the second corner in the draft. For this draft, it’s Kirkpatrick.
21.Cincinnati |Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Comment: Gilmore could just as easily go No. 20, but if he’s here the Bengals likely wouldn’t pass.
22. Browns | Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia
Comment: This pick is just as likely to belong to someone else. Browns real candidate to trade here.
23.Lions | Josh Robinson, CB, Central Florida
Comment: Janoris Jenkins of North Alabama would be the pick, but off-field issues could mean slide.
24.Steelers | Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
Comment: Just hard to see Steelers not addressing defensive front in the draft this year.
25.Broncos |Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
Comment: The word is the Broncos are looking for a running back, and Miller is a fit here.
26.Texans |Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
Comment: Slow combine time raised red flags. Fast Pro Day time lowered them enough to be pick here.
27.Patriots | Courtney Upshaw, LB, Alabama
Comment: He may not fall this far. If he does, he won’t fall any further.
28.Packers | Nick Perry, DE, Southern California
Comment: Green Bay needs defensive help. Perry is a Top 10 talent who wasn’t consistent in college.
29.Ravens | Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Comment: We mocked him here in v 1.0. He still makes of sense for a team looking to solidify interior.
30.49ers |Rueben Randle, WR, Louisiana State
Comment: ‘Niners will have a host of receivers from which to choose at No. 30.
31.Patriots | Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Comment: Jenkins may be draft’s best cover corner. Patriots may be team to overlook off-field issues.
32.Giants |Coby Fleener, TE, StanfordComment: The need at the position could make it too tough to pass